Putin “knows he cannot win” as US envoy backs tougher NATO stance

30 September 2025 , 15:34

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Putin “knows he cannot win” as US envoy backs tougher NATO stance

Russian President Vladimir Putin “in his heart of hearts” realises he cannot win the war in Ukraine, according to US special envoy Keith Kellogg. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, Kellogg said the conflict was “unwinnable” for Moscow in the long term and that Ukraine was making steady progress in undermining Russia’s ability to sustain it.

Citing strikes on Russian refineries that have cut 20 per cent of oil production, Kellogg described the Kremlin as a “petrostate” vulnerable to secondary sanctions and dwindling energy revenues. “If you take away the petrodollars, they have got an enormous problem,” he argued.

On recent incidents involving Russian aircraft and drones, Kellogg suggested NATO states should consider raising the “risk level” by responding more forcefully to incursions, pointing to Turkey’s 2015 downing of a Russian fighter jet. Referring to warnings from Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski that Warsaw would shoot down any Russian jets violating its airspace, Kellogg remarked: “The Russians have been warned.”

He dismissed the need for further “red lines,” insisting that “the West is aligned very, very well” and that the burden now lay with Putin to decide how much pain Russia was prepared to endure.

Thomas Brown

Head of Investigations