New fast-growing Covid variant identified as random testing begins again
A new variant has been identified which could trigger a winter Covid-19 wave as random swab testing is restarted in Britain.
The variant known as JN.1 has been the fastest growing variant for at least eight months according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.
Although Covid infection rates in Britain remain low overall the Office for National Statistics has restarted random testing and early indications are that 1.2% of the population had the virus in the last week of November. Its first winter report published on Thursday shows this was up from 1% the previous week.
Health chiefs are now “closely monitoring” JN.1 which makes up one in 13 cases detected. So few people are testing for Covid-19 now it is impossible to know true infection numbers but samples from hospital patients picked up the new variant on October 27.
It's impossible to know current Covid-19 infections rates because so few people are being tested (Getty Images)The UKHSA has this week designated JN.1 as an official variant named V-23DEC-01 - which means it is formally being tracked. Some 302 UK cases of the strain had been detected as of Monday.
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Dr Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at the UKHSA, tweeted: “JN.1 has been designated variant V-23DEC-01 due to increasing sequence prevalence in the UK and internationally.” She added: “So JN.1 is the variant with the highest growth advantage since at least 8 months. With variant status, we will closely monitor JN.1. It seems likely we must now add variant pressures to the forecast of a winter Covid-19 wave.”
The UK’s world leading genome sequencing capability means new variants are often identified here first. We are one of a number of countries to have flagged JN.1 with 3,618 cases confirmed globally. It has a L455S mutation in the spike protein which suggests it could be better at escaping immunity. Health experts say being recently vaccinated is the best protection against the virus.
A variant with such an immunity advantage against previous infections and vaccination could add to the uptick of pressure on the NHS. JN.1 is estimated to have a weekly growth rate advantage of 84.2% but it is still making up an increasing proportion of a small number of infections.
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Despite this, Prof Stephen Griffin, professor of cancer virology at Leeds University, tweeted that he had “not seen a growth advantage like that in some time”. A new Covid wave this winter will see some elderly and vulnerable patients requiring hospital treatment. It comes as flu cases have already started to spike with an increase in hospitalised cases by more than half in just last week.
The Office for National Statistics has restarted a random household swab testing survey for Covid-19. Its previous Covid-19 Infection Survey included hundreds of thousands of participants and directed UK government decisions throughout the pandemic.
It has been restarted in a scaled back form, randomly testing 28,000 participants in England and Scotland including most who report no symptoms. Now rebranded The Winter Coronavirus Infection Study (CIS), its first report found 1.2% of the populations tested had the virus in the week ending November 29. Rates are highest among 18 to 30 year olds and low in the elderly.
However this early data from lateral flow tests has not yet been “weighted” to represent the demographics of the population at large. New data also showed the percentage of hospital admissions testing positive for Covid-19 remains low at 2.9 per 100,000 patients in the week to December 3.
This was up from 2.6 the previous week but the same level as a fortnight ago, according to the UKHSA. An average of 2,343 people tested positive for Covid-19 in hospitals in England each day last week - less than half the number at this point last year.
Speaking last week, Dr Mary Ramsay, UKHSA director of public health, warned families to avoid mixing when they feel unwell. She said: “Getting vaccinated as soon as possible will help reduce your risk of getting seriously ill with flu or Covid-19 this festive season. The vaccines can take a week or two to provide maximum protection so get booked in now to keep your Christmas plans on track. You can help reduce the spread of these infections by avoiding mixing with others where possible when showing signs of a respiratory illness like flu and Covid-19, particularly those who are more vulnerable.”
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