Man City and Arsenal U-turn proves money matters more than ever
It’s back and it’s set to be dominated by the depth of owners’ pockets more than ever. The Premier League season kicks off on Friday night with Manchester City making the short trip to Turf Moor as they begin a quest for a sixth title in seven seasons.
Already Pep Guardiola’s side are odds on with the bookmakers to extend their dominance, while six others battle for the three remaining Champions League spots. As for the remaining 13, well, it is a case of securing their status as quickly as possible before setting more ambitious goals.
Welcome to England’s top flight in 2023, then, a place where the gaps stretch that little bit every summer thanks to a broken financial system that rewards a select few handsomely. Above all it is about finishing in the top four, which allows clubs to extract up to £100m per season extra from UEFA’s enormous prize pool.
“The biggest differentiator between the elite clubs and everybody else is Champions League participation,” John Purcell of the analysts vysyble says. “To a lesser extent the wider participation in Europe. If you’re in the Champions League then you’re already gaining premium revenue.
“Look at what’s traditionally called the big six and in the main they’ve all participated in European competition in the past eight years. There have been a couple of gaps but that collective has earned an additional £2.2bn over and above what the remainder of clubs would have earned. That’s the difference between elite and non-elite.”
Chelsea complete record-breaking Enzo Fernandez transfer after deadline day rush
But there is a chance of the top six becoming seven, if not one member of the elite half dozen being replaced by the nouveau riche. Newcastle ’s return to the Champions League and the substantial financial backing of the Saudi Public Investment Fund means they are now among that elite group.
Eddie Howe must ensure Newcastle are in the Champions League again next season. (Getty Images)“Newcastle clearly have deep pockets now given the ownership change but it’s whether or not they can consolidate their position as a regular Champions League participant,” Purcell adds. “That will determine whether this traditional perspective of the big six becomes the big seven.
“That said Tottenham are having a wobble and Arsenal have had it but are coming out the other side. Will it be five clubs? Will it be six? Or seven? That’ll be up for debate over the next couple of seasons.”
Arsenal’s emergence from their wobble has come courtesy of significant investment after a decade of frugalness. They have spent more than £360m on new signings since the beginning of last summer - and suddenly become contenders again. There have been other elements - a rich generation of academy talents spearheaded by Bukayo Saka, a clever manager in Mikel Arteta - but the evidence is clear. To succeed, you must spend.
Yet there is a major caveat here. Spending does not guarantee success. Just ask Chelsea, who may soon realise that accumalating piles of individual talent is inferior to recruiting players who they are certain can fit in a system.
But the problem is not every owner has the means to spend big and all signs are that Sheffield United and Luton Town are unlikely to survive. Last season was an outlier in all three promoted teams staying up - but all three made substantial investments in their squads.
Again, the data is clear: being prudent is a recipe for on-field struggles. By vysyble’s metrics, the best financial performances in the past decade has been Burnley in 21/22 and 14/15. And the Clarets were relegated on both occasions.
Sean Dyche's Burnley were relegated after recording the most profitable season in a decade. (PA)Purcell adds: “There’s always an argument for buying well but we’ve seen instances in recent years where it’s gone badly wrong. The best example of that was Fulham [after their third most recent promotion], who spent an awful lot but it didn’t work out and it looked for the majority of last season that Forest would go the same way.
“Usually when relegation happens it’s usually the lowest revenue earning clubs in the division. It’s a combination of a number of factors but financial performance is definitely part of the mix. The most profitable club has also been relegated - Burnley 21/22 and again in 2014/15.
“The reason for that is if you’re parsimonious and running the club along sensible lines you take relegation in your stride. Burnley have demonstrated that on two occasions and part of the psyche behind that mid-season panic is club owners get seduced by Premier League revenue.
Everton chiefs face transfer backlash from fans after deadline day disaster
“It’ll be a nine figure number but are you going to stretch the level of sensibility to try and preserve that? The outcome of that may well be a huge loss. It usually is. And you still run the risk of being relegated. But with an absolutely battered balance sheet.”
Read more similar news:
Comments:
comments powered by Disqus
