19 July 2023 , 10:42
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England have a good record at Old Trafford where they have lost only one Test match since 2001.
However, that one loss was to Australia on their last visit to England in 2019 and the home side haven't actually beaten the Baggy Green in Manchester since Ian Botham blew them away 42 years ago.
A mixed weather forecast won’t brighten the mood of Stokes' England, who are 11/5 for this must-win encounter. Australia are 7/4 and the draw is 8/5.
What | England v Australia, Fourth Test  Ballance set to make Test return for Zimbabwe after Yorkshire racism scandal
|
Where | Old Trafford, Manchester |
When | Starts Wednesday 19th July, 2023 |
How to watch | Sky Sports Main Event & Cricket |
To win the match | England , Draw , Australia |
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An injury to fellow seamer Ollie Robinson during England's three-wicket success in Leeds gave the selectors one decision to make, and they decided that who else would you want steaming in from the James Anderson End other than James Anderson.
With 37 wickets there at 22.02 in 10 previous matches, he's not exactly a left-field pick and in overcast conditions – which are forecast – his prodigious swing bowling will be a major strength.
On the flip side, he will be 41 later this month and took just three wickets at 75 in the first two Tests as England settled on a half-track assault on the Australians.
He's still 12/1 to be crowned player of the match, a market headed by Joe Root at 7/1 and Steve Smith at 7/1.
The only other tweak for England is in the batting line-up. Ollie Pope's absence at Headingley meant Harry Brook batted at three and missed out. Moeen Ali took the role in the second innings and also failed, but he's carded to bat there in Manchester with Brook returning to his favoured No.5 slot.
Australians set for spin blank
It has been 118 matches since Australia last went into a Test without a frontline spinner but that 12-year run is set to be ended in Manchester.
With Nathan Lyon injured, Todd Murphy bowling just 9.3 overs at Leeds, a pace attack on form and a weather forecast that favours the seamers, it would hardly represent a radical move.
Spin bowlers have averaged 42.46 at Old Trafford over the past decade, compared to 26.98 for seamers, a stat the Australian selectors are acutely aware of.
Australia have other conundrums to solve, such as the form of both David Warner and Mitchell Marsh.
Opener Warner managed 4 and 1 at Headingley, undone by nemesis Stuart Broad both times, and doesn't have an away Test hundred to his name in almost six years.
Marsh, on the other hand, starred in Leeds with a dazzling first-innings hundred in trying conditions and also offered a decent bowling option, only sending down nine overs but removing Zak Crawley twice.
The fact is, there is no great appetite to drop Warner nor bring fit-again Cameroon Green back at Marsh's expense. Indeed, all three are set to play in a longer, stronger top eight with Travis Head taking on occasional spin duties and Josh Hazlewood nailed on to replace Scott Boland.
Weather gods could be pivotal factor
It was under slate-grey skies in Manchester four years ago that the Australians retained the Ashes with a spanking 185-run success, so the venue – and gloomy forecast – should lift their spirits.
And, if you believe the forecasts, with heavy rain anticipated for Saturday and Sunday and showers, some thundery, over the first three days, the draw at 8/5 does look more of a runner than is usually the case with England these days.
That said, England's new slightly chaotic approach gets games going at a healthy pace, hence they have not drawn any of their last 17 Tests.
Even with a serious rain interruption on the Saturday of the Headingley Test, the match was still ticked off inside four days.
Stokes has no choice but to be aggressive and positive because a draw at either Manchester or The Oval means the Ashes will be heading back down under.
They need to win both remaining matches and that should ensure, whatever the weather, there will be a lot more thrills and spills to come to add to an already sparkling summer.
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