Premier League title, top four and relegation places can be decided this weekend
It hasn't quite all come down to this, but this weekend will go a long way towards determining just how this most unconventional of Premier League seasons ends up.
A campaign destined to forever be remembered as the one with a World Cup in the middle of it, the 2022-23 season also looks like being the one where Manchester City equal the feat of rivals Manchester United and do the treble of Premier League, Champions League and FA Cup, depending on what Inter Milan and United themselves have to say about that of course.
The first leg of that treble could be completed this weekend, while elsewhere European qualification and the relegation places are also set to be determined, and everything could be sewn up before next week's midweek matches and the final weekend of the season.
Here's how the big issues in the division could all be solved across the next few days.
Premier League title and runners-up (1st and 2nd)
The key games
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Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Saturday 5.30pm
Man City vs Chelsea - Sunday 4pm
Undoubtedly the easiest one of the lot to work out, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City will be Premier League champions for a fifth time in the last six seasons this weekend should second placed Arsenal lose at Nottingham Forest on Saturday evening.
Guardiola could get his hands on the Premier League trophy for the fifth time (Getty Images)A draw for the Gunners would effectively make City champions as well, as they hold a +20 goal difference advantage over the Londoners, but it would only be officially rubber stamped should Guardiola's side avoid defeat to Chelsea.
If Arsenal win, then City could only confirm the title this weekend if they then beat Chelsea.
Should City win then they will be presented with the trophy on Sunday evening, as the Chelsea game is their final home match of the campaign before trips to Brighton and Brentford to round off their league season.
Rest of the Champions League places (3rd and 4th)
The key games
Bournemouth vs Man Utd - Saturday 3pm
Liverpool vs Aston Villa - Saturday 3pm
Newcastle vs Leicester - Monday 8pm
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Newcastle are on the cusp of confirming a top four finish (PA)Liverpool's run of seven straight victories has seen them creep up on the rails of the top four places, but Newcastle's 4-1 win over Brighton on Thursday has put Eddie Howe's side firmly in the box seat to secure Champions League football.
Should Liverpool lose at home to Aston Villa on Saturday then Newcastle will finish in the top four and play in European football's premier competition for the first time since 2003.
A Liverpool draw against Villa would almost secure a top four spot for Newcastle, who then need just a point at home to Leicester on Monday to confirm it. If Liverpool win, then the Magpies would still secure the top four by beating Leicester.
The same scenario is effectively in play for Manchester United, but their game in hand comes at home to Chelsea on Thursday.
One crucial difference is that United's goal difference (+10) is much worse than Liverpool's (+28, Newcastle's is +35) meaning that should Liverpool win their remaining two games and reach 71 points, United would need six points from their three games to secure a top four spot.
If Liverpool lose at home to Villa and United beat Bournemouth, Erik ten Hag's side will finish in the top four, while a Liverpool draw and United win would leave them needing just one point to confirm it.
Europa League (5th and 6th)/Conference League (7th) places
The key games
Tottenham vs Brentford - Saturday 12.30pm
Liverpool vs Aston Villa - Saturday 3pm
Brighton vs Southampton - Sunday 2pm
Tottenham and Villa are both still vying for a top four spot (PA)Liverpool are guaranteed to finish no lower than sixth, and so have already secured Europa League football next season. If they beat Villa, they will finish no lower than fifth.
Brighton, who have three games left, are seven points behind Liverpool and eight behind United, and while they theoretically could still make the top four they would require both to take no more than one point from their remaining games.
If Brighton beat Southampton and Liverpool beat Aston Villa then the Seagulls will finish either sixth or seventh, meaning they will play either Europa League or Europa Conference League football next season.
Brighton would drop to eighth on Saturday should Tottenham and Villa win, but the latter pair can only reach a total of 63 points, whereas Brighton can reach 67 and also play Villa on the final weekend of the season, meaning both Brighton and Villa can't reach their highest possible tallies, opening up the chance for Spurs to finish in the top six.
West Ham will qualify for the Europa League if they win the Europa Conference League, but that victory will have no bearing on European qualification through the Premier League.
Relegation (18th, 19th and 20th places)
Leicester are 19th in the table, and have to wait until Monday to play their game (Getty Images)The key games
Wolves vs Everton - Saturday 3pm
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal - Saturday 5.30pm
West Ham vs Leeds - Sunday 1.30pm
Newcastle vs Leicester - Monday 8pm
Neither Nottingham Forest or Everton would immediately guarantee complete safety with wins on Saturday, but victories would go a long way to ensuring that they will be playing Premier League football next season.
With Steve Cooper and Sean Dyche's sides playing first, any positive results would pile the pressure onto Leeds and Leicester ahead of their matches, and Forest and Everton could find themselves in a position where their safety was confirmed without them playing.
For that to happen Forest would have to either win or draw against Arsenal and Everton beat Wolves, placing both on a minimum of 35 points (Forest would be on 37 if they won). In that scenario if Leeds and Leicester then lost, both would be down.
A Forest win over Arsenal would mean that Leicester can't catch them at all, and Leeds would need two wins and Forest to lose their final game at Crystal Palace to overhaul them. Should Forest draw then their destiny would still be in their own hands, and they won't enter the final weekend in the relegation zone regardless of other results.
Nottingham Forest go into the weekend in 16th place (PA)Everton can only guarantee the same if they win at Wolves, with a draw or defeat opening up the possibility that Leeds and/or Leicester surpass them with wins in their matches. If Everton fail to beat Wolves, then West Ham are mathematically safe.
Of the teams 16th-19th, Leicester's goal difference of -18 is by far the best, and if Everton drew at Wolves then the Foxes would go above them with a win at Newcastle on Monday. Depending on Leeds' result at West Ham, that could lift them out of the bottom three.
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