27 May 2026 , 09:54
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Is the division on Britain’s political Right at risk of letting the Left in? This question, unsurprisingly, has arisen once more as all political parties attempt to navigate the unprecedentedly fragmented political landscape currently existing in Britain.
Initial polling for the Makerfield by-election indicates that Reform might fail to prevent Andy Burnham’s bid to become Labour leader, as 7 percent say they will vote for Rupert Lowe’s splinter Restore Britain Party. Three in five of these voters supported Reform in 2024.
Meanwhile, it has been suggested that the Right could control many more local councils if Reform and the Conservatives were willing to form joint administrations in areas where no single party holds a majority but the two parties together have an overall majority. Many have speculated that a lack of collaboration between Reform and the Conservatives in the next election might allow Labour to maintain power.
In reality, we should differentiate between post-election deals that may be arranged after an election and a pre-election pact that ensures only one Right candidate is presented to the electorate initially.
In local government, where hung councils are common, post-election agreements and understandings are more frequent than national party leaders typically acknowledge. In most areas where the May 7 elections resulted in no overall control but where Reform and the Conservatives have a majority, one or the other has managed to form a minority administration. In two councils – Basildon and Hartlepool – they have actually agreed to form a joint majority leadership team. With some council administrations still pending, so far only in Brentwood has neither party taken control in a place where they have a majority together.
Fears that a lack of collaboration on the Right will allow the Left to maintain control of local government seem exaggerated.
But what about pre-election deals? These are inevitably more challenging. They face two obstacles. First, securing agreement on who should contest where. Second, convincing supporters of the parties in the pact to vote for a joint candidate.
The last major attempt to form an electoral pact was negotiated between the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) for the 1983 election. The negotiations took months, with established local Liberals reluctant to make way for the newly formed SDP. The accompanying disputes and disagreements helped burst the bubble that briefly had the two parties ahead in the polls.
Reform would want to contest many former Conservative seats. The party’s best performances in this month’s local elections were concentrated in areas that were once Conservative strongholds. Persuading local Conservative associations, who still hope to win locally, to make way for Reform could prove equally challenging.
Some Conservative supporters do seem open to backing Reform – and vice versa. But for every voter willing to do so, there is another who seems hesitant.
Polling by YouGov last year found that while 45 percent of Reform supporters backed a merger of the two parties, 43 percent were opposed. Among Conservative supporters, the balance of opinion was slightly against – 38 to 45 percent.
And when earlier this year, YouGov explored the willingness of Conservative and Reform voters to vote tactically against a Labour, Liberal Democrat, or Green opponent, the result was much the same.
In each instance, only slightly more Reform voters were willing to vote tactically for the Conservatives than said they would stick with Reform. Much the same was true for Conservative voters when faced with a choice between Labour and Reform – while nearly one in four would back the Liberal Democrats in a contest between Ed Davey’s party and Reform.
In short, any attempt to create a Reform-Conservative pact could potentially lose a significant number of potential supporters along the way.
But what about Restore Britain? Most regular polls are not including Rupert Lowe’s party among their options. However, one company, YouGov, has been doing so for the last two months. Restore Britain has consistently registered 3-4 percent of the vote, most of it from former Reform voters. This result might help explain the slight decline in Reform support since the winter.
With no prospect of an agreement between them, Mr. Farage might yet come to regret his falling out with Mr. Lowe.
World Affairs Correspondent