Historic first female PM in Japan faces tough political and economic challenges
Japan elected Sanae Takaichi as its first female prime minister on Tuesday, setting the country up for a turn to the political Right.
The hard-line conservative will lead a fragile coalition that does not have a majority in parliament and faces serious social, economic, and security challenges.
Mrs. Takaichi, 64, won 237 of the 465 votes cast in the lower house of the Diet, a narrow victory that underlines the difficulties ahead for a prime minister who considers Margaret Thatcher a heroine.
The most immediate of those challenges comes on Monday, when Donald Trump arrives in Tokyo for a three-day visit.
The US president has already secured a $550bn (£410bn) investment package from Japan, in return for minimizing tariffs on imports, including those covering the critical auto sector.
Mr. Trump is expected to call for even greater economic commitments from Japan, with Tokyo concerned that he may link trade with security. Mr. Trump has in the past hinted that he would withdraw US troops from allied nations, including Japan and South Korea, if they did not bend to his wishes.
Regarded as a China hawk, Mrs. Takaichi was elected head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) earlier this month, after it had suffered a disastrous defeat in elections for the upper house of the Diet in July.
The electorate deserted the LDP, which has been in power almost uninterrupted since 1955, largely in favor of more conservative political parties.
Already a minority government, the LDP’s ability to cling to power became even more uncertain when the Komeito party, which had served as the junior coalition partner for 26 years, ended the alliance last week because of Mrs. Takaichi’s conservative positions, including on security and immigration.
After casting around for potential new allies in back-room discussions at the weekend, Mrs. Takaichi was able to announce a last-minute deal on Monday with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP).
A minor regional party with nationwide ambitions, the JIP is an unusual political ally for the LDP. As a quid pro quo for his support, Fumitake Fujita, the joint leader of the JIP, made a series of demands of Mrs. Takaichi.
Some of those demands mesh with the LDP’s plans, including reducing the number of seats in the Diet and preserving the law that only permits a male member of the imperial family to sit on the Chrysanthemum Throne.
Others, however, appear to clash with established LDP policy, including Mr. Fujita’s insistence that campaign finance laws be altered to ban donations from corporations or organizations.
And while Mrs. Takaichi appears to have agreed to look into the matter, analysts say there is little likelihood of her moving it forward.
‘I’ll be surprised if she lasts two years’
Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of politics at Tokyo’s Waseda University, said: “The LDP is happy to agree to cut seats in the Diet as that reduces the influence of smaller parties, but the party will never agree to abolish corporate donations.”
Inevitably, he added, differences of opinion will doom the alliance, in the same way as Komeito could no longer overlook its policy positions being sidelined.
“The next general election is in two years and I will be surprised if Mrs. Takaichi lasts that long”, Mr. Shigemura said.
Analysts anticipate greater political instability and a return to Japanese prime ministers serving a year or so in office before being replaced by shifting alliances and a restive electorate.
As well as being Japan’s first female leader, Mrs. Takaichi breaks the mold by not coming from one of the nation’s blue-blooded political families.
She has a relatively racy past that includes riding motorbikes and being the drummer in a heavy metal band at university.
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