Britain sends a message to Trump: NATO is worth investing in

25 April 2024 , 17:00

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U.K. pledge to hike defense spending is designed to keep U.S. on side.

But it was Sunak’s big defense spending announcement in Poland on Tuesday — a display of military fiscal firepower over smooth-talking diplomacy — which Britain hopes will have made the greater impression.

Sunak — in arguably his most consequential moment as prime minister — announced a £75 billion increase in defense spending over the next six years as he vowed to maintain Britain’s place as Europe’s largest military power.

Trump, broadly neck-and-neck with U.S. President Joe Biden in polling for November’s presidential election, has consistently suggested he could drag America away from NATO and leave Europe to defend Ukraine alone if Western allies fail to pull their weight.

Speaking in Warsaw, Sunak said it was important to show the U.S. that Europe understands this is “not the moment for complacency," in remarks clearly aimed at the former president.

“We can’t keep thinking America will pay any price or bear any burden if we are unwilling to make sacrifices for our own security," Sunak said.

Standing alongside Sunak at an hour-long press conference, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg sent his own message to Trump.

“A strong NATO is good for Europe, but a strong NATO is also good for the United States," he said.

“It is in the interest of the United States to keep NATO, and therefore I believe they will remain a staunch and loyal ally."

All eyes on Paris and Berlin

Britain’s challenge to other Western European allies has now been laid down.

Sunak and his ministers are pushing France, Germany and others to match the U.K. commitment to spend 2.5 percent of GDP on defense by 2030.

France has significantly boosted defense spending since President Emmanuel Macron came to power in 2017, and Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced in February that France will reach NATO’s current target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense this year, earlier than previously forecast.

For its part, Germany has transformed its defense spending since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and is also on track to meet the current 2 percent target this year for the first time since the end of the Cold War.

At a joint press conference with Sunak in Berlin on Wednesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he accepted Europe collectively needs to do more, despite the massive aid package for Ukraine approved by the U.S. Congress this week.

"The decision by the United States does not relieve us here in Europe of the task of further expanding our support for Ukraine," Scholz said. "All Europeans should make the necessary decisions in proportion to their respective economic strength."

Sunak hailed his counterpart’s efforts but stressed all European nations need to "adjust" to a new reality.

“I do believe that we’ll look back at this moment in time and recognize that this was an inflection point," Sunak said. "We have to adjust for the new paradigm."

U.K. ministers are already pushing for every NATO country to adopt the 2.5 percent target ahead of the alliance’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington this summer.

A U.K. Ministry of Defence insider, granted anonymity to speak frankly about internal discussions, said Britain would be pressing for all countries to agree to "2.5 for 75" in the lead-up to the Washington summit, noting that Trump was "so unpredictable day-to-day" that Europe must do everything it can to prepare for his possible victory.

Transactional Trump

Previous experience suggests Trump is, above all, a transactional politician, prepared to hector and bully friend and foe alike if he believes it will secure a better deal.

His grievances — sometimes real and sometimes imagined — come against countries he deems as over-reliant on American military support or as taking U.S. firms for a ride.

This was on full display during a February campaign rally, where Trump said he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO allies who do not meet the alliance’s minimum spending requirements.

“You don’t pay your bills, you don’t get protection. It’s very simple,” Trump said.

The ex-president tried to calm European fears a few weeks later, insisting the U.S. would not quit NATO if he is elected on November 5.

But a palpable fear remains in European capitals of an American retreat at a time of grave geopolitical instability.

One senior European diplomat said "we are trying to engage as many Republicans as possible and people around" Trump to try and win his ear, but that "it’s very difficult."

Some U.K. government officials believe Britain is uniquely placed among European nations to bend Trump’s ear. The ex-president has shown himself to be something of an Anglophile and has frequently expressed his admiration for the royal family.

Britain also has a long-standing record of meeting its NATO defense spending requirements, and ministers hope the U.K. can lead a coalition of Germany, France and Poland to show the U.S. that Europe can and will pull its weight. Poland, like several other eastern European countries, already spends well above NATO’s 2 percent target.

Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director at the London-based defense think tank RUSI, said that “it’s likely, as was the case under the last Trump administration, that there’s more potential for a relationship with the U.K."

He added: "I think the way the American debate is going is that the more Europeans do for their own defense, the less the Americans will feel they have to do.

"All Americans across the aisle, particularly the Republicans, but also many Democrats are saying: ‘Look, Europeans have got to help us — the main struggle we have in the next period is with China’."

Elizabeth Baker

Technology & Business Editor

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