02 November 2023 , 14:55
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As Israeli troops battle into Gaza City a ceasefire, whilst increasingly called for, may become increasingly unlikely.
The Israeli Defence Force has momentum and is making real gains against Hamas, despite having lost 17 soldiers and has to keep its enemy on the defensive. Any break in the air, sea and land attack will give Hamas an opportunity to re-arm and send more combatants into the battle for Gaza City.
And it is just possible that the IDF’s strategy on the ground, whilst brutal in terms of civilian losses, may save more lives than if they assaulted in any other way. They are trying to separate Hamas from Palestinian civilians they have repeatedly told to head south.
On the ground Israel’s forces have driven a wedge into Wadi Gaza in the middle of the strip and this separates the north from the relatively safer south of Gaza. This forces Hamas to decide whether to make a desperate lunge of reinforcements into the north or stay put, leaving those there isolated and having to fight to the death.
Any lull in fighting would give Hamas time to drive the IDF out of the Wadi and reconnect the strip, thereby regaining control. The IDF’s armour has advanced into the north west, two miles inside Gaza and taken control of an area along the Strip’s north western beach. It is possible they are taking advantage of dunes in that area to protect them from Hamas’ anti-tank teams. And in the north east several tank and infantry incursions appear to be driving further wedges in between Hamas’ northern positions.
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Taken from the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip on October 29 (AFP via Getty Images)All of this means Gaza City may soon be cut off and surrounded, stopping Hamas from re-arming, except, perhaps through an increasingly narrowing corridor. And that is likely where the hostages are being kept. The complication is the tunnel system and it is likely the air-strikes are all about trying to plug that route for Hamas.
It may be that without drone footage Hamas will not be able to see completely what is happening and will keep sacrificing fighters. It could go on for many weeks and months, appearing like a war of attrition but creating a funnel through which Hamas keep pouring to the front and dying.
For now, I do not believe the Israelis will entertain anything more than a slight lull in fighting. And that would be to manoeuvre to their advantage.