09 October 2023 , 11:42
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Covid hospitalisations have spiked 25 per cent in the last week with the UK set to break the 100 Pirola case benchmark.
The virus continues to spread across the UK, with cases up by nearly a third and deaths increasing over 50 per cent on this time last week. Data, from UK Health Security Agency, continues to point to a worsening picture of Covid across the country as confirmed Pirola sequences continue to rise.
Even with a vastly reduced testing infrastructure, cases are on the up, having spiked over 3,600 more on the seven days prior, in the latest available data leading up to the end of September. Without a nationwide testing apparatus, like that which existed during the pandemic, the true number of infections is likely vastly higher.
Meanwhile, healthcare data on the number of patients in hospitals has been steadily rising since mid-July and the latest data continues this trend - with more than triple the number of people confirmed to have Covid in hospital now, than in the summer.
Over that time period, cases and deaths have both risen similarly - however, data on deaths only runs until early September and is for people whose death certificate mentions Covid as one of the causes. Every winter so far since the pandemic started has seen indicators of Covid rise steadily after summer and in the run-up to winter.
Baby boy has spent his life in hospital as doctors are 'scared' to discharge him
However, due to significant changes in PCR testing in hospitals from early 2022 to April of this year, it's difficult to compare hospitalisation rates now, to then. The country no longer has access to vast amounts of the data it did during the pandemic, making tracing the true spread of Covid and its numerous variants more difficult. Due to reduced PCR testing capacity, the UK is more likely to catch variants later than some experts have warned - compared to picking up Delta very early in the first months of 2021.
Similarly, vital data that shed light on the situation in schools, in infections in young people, their absences, and in teachers, and in how Covid exacerbated existing inequalities in the country has long since been stopped being collected.
However, of the data we do have, so far the Autumn booster campaign seems to have had a slow uptake, with under one in five eligible people having had the jab. Around three million jabs have been given so far. Despite having a greater population than most of England's regions, London's booster take up has been significantly lower.
Meanwhile, BA.2.86, a Covid variant nicknamed Pirola, is set to pass 100 confirmed cases. Whilst real numbers are likely far, far higher, according to GISAID, there are now 99 sequences in the UK, with the majority in England.
Pirola is still far from the dominant variant, and one of a huge number of competing variants in the UK. The country is still generally dominated by Omicron sub-variants, including Eris and Acturus. Whilst some may point to Pirola’s current growth as being quite slow, that can be an early part of exponential growth before case numbers explode - and hospitalisations and deaths successively.
Early data from analysis of BA.2.86, has found it has similar antibody escape to XBB.1.5 but may be slightly more transmissible, up to a certain point, than previous XBB variants. The vast majority of confirmed Pirola cases in the UK, as of last month, were in females.