Experts warn climate change could bring travel to 'brink of extinction' by 2040
Experts have warned that climate change could mean holidays will drastically have changed by 2040.
This is according to Intrepid Travel and the foresight agency The Future Laboratory, which are trying to work out how travel will have changed by the next decade. The Sustainable Future for Travel report argues that a "wealth of compelling climate evidence shows we are approaching a tipping point from which there is no return."
This summer alone saw extreme weather conditions hitting European hotspots, with Greek islands alone being hit by raging wildfires and severe flooding, as well as warnings being issued by the Foreign Office for a number of popular destinations.
If the prediction comes true, it is unlikely that Rishi Sunak would be a fan. At the end of September the Prime Minister induced mirth and outrage for pretending to ban a number of non-existent policies hypothetically designed to save the planet, such as a new flight tax. He would likely be joined by plenty of other travellers in pushing back against a system that makes you feel guilt about going on holiday.
Parts of the Maldives will come under threat as sea levels rise in coming years (Getty Images/iStockphoto)The report goes on to predict that certain destinations will fall out of favour as the climate changes. Travellers will have to ‘chase the shade’, choosing holidays based on cooler and safer destinations that are not ravaged by climate change.
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Destinations like Belgium, Slovenia and Poland are touted as the top future summer holiday destinations, as Majorca and Greece become too hot to handle. Low-lying destinations such as the Maldives and Jakarta will be nearly fully submerged a decade later. The rising earth’s temperature will also mean destinations like Lapland will struggle to maintain their snowy allure, and ski seasons will become shorter than ever.
The study also argues that over-tourism will become a more pressing issue as local communities reliant on visitors push back on unsustainable forms of travel. By 2040, governments will be required to introduce regulations on travel businesses to ensure that the majority of money spent by tourists in a destination stays in the local economy, the report predicts.
Another, more hopeful forecast - especially given the likelihood that part of the UK's long-awaited HS2 project is about to be scrapped - is that trains will become a much bigger part of travel than they currently are. In 2024, they aim to have customers taking approximately 4,000 fewer flights on trips (compared to 2023), replacing journeys with high-speed train alternatives where possible.
Darrell Wade, co-founder and chairman of Intrepid Travel, said: "The direct, catastrophic impact of climate change has for too long been viewed as something distant in the future. But this is no longer an impending event; it's happening now.
"Tourism must evolve and become regenerative, as the current model is unsustainable. We must recognise that the future needs to be different from business as usual, and that the climate crisis is not a competitive advantage. The clock is ticking for our planet and the future of the travel and tourism industry. There is limited time left and immediate collective action and innovation is needed to decarbonise travel together and truly achieve the immense potential for sustainable development within our industry."
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