23 September 2023 , 10:52
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Opta's supercomputer is backing Arsenal to win the North London Derby and end Spurs' unbeaten record, while also predicting victories for both Manchester clubs this weekend.
Arsenal and Spurs both boast a record of four wins and a draw going into Sunday's match-up. It is Ange Postecoglou's first derby at the helm, while Mikel Arteta has yet to lose against Spurs at the Emirates Stadium.
Last season, the two teams went in level at the break in the corresponding fixture. Arsenal raced clear in the second half, though, with a red card for visiting defender Emerson Royal helping them make the points safe and draw first blood.
This time around, Opta gives the Gunners a 47.6% chance of victory in one of 10 match predictions ahead of a busy Premier League weekend. Spurs have a 25.7% chance of success, which is far from insignificant, while the supercomputer rates the draw at 26.7%.
The heaviest favourites of the week, according to the numbers, are champions Manchester City. Their hold an 80.8% chance of three points at home to Nottingham Forest, whose chances of following their humbling of Chelsea with another big away win stand at just 5.5%.
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Liverpool, who host West Ham on Sunday, are also heavy favourites. They are 61.6% favourites against West Ham, who haven't won at Anfield since back in 2015.
None of the three promoted clubs have won a Premier League match this season, and Opta's supercomputer doesn't expect that to change despite all three playing at home this weekend. Luton have the best shot, with a 34.1% chance against Wolves (36.5%), as Rob Edwards' team chase their first points in the top flight.
Burnley got off the mark on Monday, drawing with Nottingham Forest, but will be without suspended striker Lyle Foster for Man Utd's visit to Turf Moor. The Clarets are given a 24.9% chance of victory, with Man Utd (46.8%) given a healthy chance of winning despite coming off three successive defeats in all competitions.
Sheffield United came within minutes of beating Spurs last week, only for two stoppage-time goals to turn the game on its head. They have been given a 27.5% chance of turning over Newcastle (42.9%), who have kept back-to-back clean sheets.
Opta's predictions for the upcoming Premier League fixturesThe remaining four games all see the home teams given the upper hand, though some are closer to call than others. Crystal Palace, for example, have a 37.4% to 32.7% edge against Fulham, with a 29.9% chance of a draw.
Brighton are the most likely of the others to win, holding a 56.5% chance at home to Bournemouth, while Brentford (50.1%) are tipped to get the better of Everton. The corresponding fixtures last season were close-run things, with Brentford drawing 1-1 with Everton and Brighton needing a late Kaoru Mitoma winner against Bournemouth on the south coast.
The remaining game is Aston Villa's trip to Chelsea on Sunday. Villa won 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last season, in what proved to be Graham Potter's final game as the Blues' manager, but the London side have a 45.3% chance to claim revenge and take all three points.