Inside Mikel Arteta's decision to axe Aaron Ramsdale and go with David Raya
No-one should be surprised that David Raya has been given his chance.
But the sheer brutality, the ruthlessness and timing of Mikel Arteta ’s decision is the point which has shocked Arsenal fans. Aaron Ramsdale is a hugely popular figure, the keeper almost symbolises Arsenal’s revival because he has played a major part in the team’s revival in the past couple of seasons and is such a likeable fella.
He’s the boy next door who won over the fans who doubted him when he first joined and are now standing up for him after he lost his place. Raya will be Arsenal’s No1 for the long term. No-one should doubt that.
Ramsdale will get games but everyone can see what’s happening. It’s the same process which happened when Ramsdale displaced Bernd Leno. No-one should forget that Leno had arguably been Arsenal ’s best player the previous season and has more caps for Germany (9) than Ramsdale has for England (4).
The brutal truth is that Arteta has looked at Ramsdale and thought he could make an upgrade with Raya. The stats bear it out. And the Arsenal manager is all about the stats. But should everything be decided on stats? What about Ramsdale's personality and his huge value as a dressing room character?
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Raya’s stats are better when it comes to passing and in the keeper equivalent of expected goals is + 5.86 compared to Ramsdale’s of - 3.04. A simple explanation: It’s xGoT conceded minus goals conceded. xGoT is the expected goals value of the shots on target faced, meaning Ramsdale conceded around 3 goals more than he should have done based on the quality of those efforts on target.
The statistics compiled by StatsPerform show Raya has made less errors leading to goals, Ramsdale has conceded more goals - a total of 12 - with the first shot he has faced in a game while Raya has a higher save percentage overall.
HAVE YOUR SAY! Has Mikel Arteta made the right decision by picking David Raya to be his No.1? Comment below.
Ramsdale has been relegated to a place on the bench (Phil Oldham/REX/Shutterstock)Raya looks super confident playing out from the back and has shown at Brentford that he is also a top class keeper. Raya is so good with his feet that he looks like an outfield player. Ramsdale is also good with his distribution. He is capable of spectacular saves. Just remember his stunning stop at Leicester two seasons ago or his incredible saves at Liverpool last season.
Could Raya pull those off? And those sort of stops are the reason why Arsenal fans love Ramsdale and why people are so surprised. But there is less shock at the training ground. From the moment Arsenal signed Raya on loan, there was an inevitability about him being made No1.
Arteta is a perfectionist. He looked at Ramsdale’s mistake against Southampton in the run-in last season. There is a theory - backed by stats - that he lets in too many goals which come from the first shot he faces.
By the nature of football, keepers get better during games with a string of saves under their belt. The real test is being ready from the start. Could he have done better on Fulham ’s opening goal last month?
Once Ramsdale had got his hand to Marcus Rashford ’s shot, should he have kept out Manchester United ’s opener rather than push it onto the post? That seems ridiculously harsh to me but presumably some feel different.
Also, don’t forget that Arsenal tried for Raya before Ramsdale. There is a long standing interest and the key to that interest is Arsenal keeper coach Inaki Cana. Raya even shares the same agent as Cana.
Ramsdale was well aware of Arsenal’s long-standing interest in Raya and was ready for the competition. Ramsdale almost certainly knew when he signed a new five year contract in May that Arsenal would go for Raya again because the Spaniard would be available this summer.
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Ramsdale only signed a new contract in May (Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)Raya only had a year left on his contract and they managed to ship out Matt Turner and did a loan deal with Brentford. So, what was the point of giving Ramsdale a new deal? To protect their asset and there would be no shortage of takers for a keeper who many will still believe is better than Raya. You pay your money, you take your choice.
Ramsdale must now see how many games he gets, weigh up the competition and then decide whether he needs to move for the sake of his own career and England chances. Ramsdale must be gutted. He clearly puts on a brave face. But are team mates shocked? I don’t think so. Remember, Arteta will make decisions for small gains.
When William Saliba came back from loan, where on earth could he play? You can’t drop Ben White or Gabriel, everyone said. Arteta put Saliba straight in, put White at right back and now Saliba looks among the best centre halves in Europe.
Raya has taken over as Arsenal's first choice keeper (Getty Images)Arteta was always going to give Raya his chance. But people assumed that might be in the first Champions League game. Or the Carabao Cup. Then the process would begin. Not the game at Everton.
The first game back for Arsenal after the international break in which Ramsdale started for England. Imagine the comedown for Ramsdale. Starts for England at Hampden Park, gets binned in the next game. That’s brutal.
Afterwards, Arteta came out with a bizarre line about being the first manager to sub a keeper for another keeper during the game. Talk about deflection tactics. That’s straight out of the Pep Guardiola handbook. But it worked. BBC 5Live the next morning had a sports bulletin about whether a manager would do it. Not whether dropping Ramsdale was the right decision.
Every keeper you speak to will say it’s a unique position and the No1 wants to know he’s starting. It’s not healthy any other way. Yes, some managers rotate between competitions. But no-one does it in the Premier League. And nor will Arteta. Like it or not, Raya is here for the long term.
And there is certain to be interest in Ramsdale. You surely would be keen if you were Bayern Munich or Chelsea. The big clubs will be monitoring. But Arteta will not care. He’s making the decisions for his team.
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